Ag Market Commentary

March corn ends the week with a 2 cent loss, with Friday action helping to ensure the loss. On Friday corn moved lower by 5 to 6 1/2 cents, with the March contract the weakest. USDA announced a private export sale of 142,428 MT of corn sold to unknown destinations for a 2019/20 delivery. In the USDA’s Export Sales report for the week ending 01/16, there were 1.007 MMT of corn bookings. Traders were anticipating 500-950k MT. Neither bullish input helped prices. New crop sales were 2,000 MT, which was below the estimated 100-200k MT. Sales for the week were up 17.25% wk/wk, and were the highest since December 12. Corn exports from the same week were 15.435 mbu, which was 28% lower than the week prior and pushed MYTD shipments to 386.845 mbu. The MYTD shipments remain below last year’s pace with the latest update at 53.42% behind, on average 19/20 total MY shipments have lagged 18/19 by 57.78%. The CFTC reported corn spec traders reduced their net short 15.69% wk/wk; as of Tuesday managed money was 67,804 contracts net short.

Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.87 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents,

May 20 Corn closed at $3.92 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents,

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.97 3/4, down 5 1/2 cents,

Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.95 3/4, down 5 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans were down 7 1/2 on Friday, which ensured a weekly loss of 27 3/4 cents in the March contracts. Soybean meal futures closed $0.60/ton lower on Friday and closed the week $2.30/ton lower in the March futures. March soybean oil futures lost 46 points on Friday trades, which pushed futures 133 cents lower wk/wk. Soybean spec traders flipped their soybean position back to net short as the 01/21 CoT report indicated. Managed money stayed net short in soybean meal. Soy oil specs were less net long as of Tuesday. USDA reported weekly soybean export sales of 790,006 MT. That was a wk/wk increase of 23% but was 25.9% lower than the same week last year. New crop soybean bookings for the week ending 1/16 were in line with analyst expectations at 120,743 MT. Total unshipped commits are 6.977 MMT. As for soybean meal, the update showed more than expected sales for the week ending 01/16, with 641,919 MT in bookings. That was a weekly increase of 71.1% and was 162.2% more than the same week last year. Soybean oil sales were also above expectations, listed at 55,588 MT for the same week. That was the highest weekly sales number for bean oil since the week ending 01/25/18. Soy oil shipments total 322.745 MT through the first 16 weeks of the MY, which is a 3 year high.

Mar 20 Soybeans closed at $9.02, down 7 1/2 cents,

May 20 Soybeans closed at $9.15 3/4, down 7 1/2 cents,

Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $9.29 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents,

Aug 20 Soybeans closed at $9.34 1/4, down 7 1/2 cents,

Mar 20 Soybean Meal closed at $298.30, down $0.60

Mar 20 Soybean Oil closed at $32.02, down $0.46

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat was lower on Friday, with Minneapolis down the most. Despite a 7 cent giveback in March futures, SRW wheat was still 3 cents higher on the week. KC HRW futures were 6 1/4 lower from Friday’s action, and ended the week 8 3/4 cents lower. The MGE HRS futures fell by 8 ¼ on Friday, which put futures lower by 15 cents wk/wk. In the latest CoT report from the 01/21, Chicago wheat spec traders were 40% more net long. In KC HRW futures, managed money was also more net long as OI in managed money shorts has dropped 7 consecutive weeks. The Spring wheat spec traders extended their longest net short on record, which is now up to 72 consecutive weeks. USDA’s weekly export sales report had wheat bookings for the week ending 01/16 at 741,983 MTs, with 46,000 MT of new crop wheat bookings. The report showed a weekly increase of 14.21% in wheat shipments, with 19.290 mbu shipped. That puts MYTD exports for all wheat at 568.987 mbu, which is 16.49% ahead of last MY’s pace.

Mar 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.73 1/2, down 7 cents,

Mar 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.86, down 6 1/4 cents,

Mar 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.47 1/2, down 8 1/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures were mixed on Friday. Futures closed 30 cents lower in Jun contracts, and 12 to 17 cents higher in Feb and April futures. Despite the Friday gain Feb cattle were $1.50 lower wk/wk. Feeder cattle futures were lower by 85 to 97 cents on Friday which pushed to a weekly move of minus $3.50 for Jan. The 01/23 CME Feeder Cattle index was down 2 cents to $144.84. CFTC’s report showed managed money cattle traders at 90,253 contracts net long on 01/21. Feeder cattle spec traders were more net long wk/wk, as the OI increase in longs outpaced the uptick in shorts. The CoF report showed Jan 1 cattle on feed at 11.958 million head, up 2.29% yr/yr, and in-line with estimates. December placements were 1.828m head, up 3.45% yr/yr. Marketings for the month of December were also in-line with estimates, at 1.834m head. That is a 5.34% increase yr/yr. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower. Choice boxes were down 83 cents, and Select boxes were down by 50 cents. Cash cattle sales this week are ranging $124 to $126 for live, with dressed sales going $198 to $199 with the USDA reporting a few as high as $199.50. USDA’s estimated Federally Inspected cattle slaughter through Saturday was 647,000 head, which was 4,000 head above last week and 39,000 head more than the same week last year.

Feb 20 Cattle closed at $124.850, up $0.175,

Apr 20 Cattle closed at $124.300, up $0.125,

Jun 20 Cattle closed at $116.025, down $0.300,

Jan 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $141.850, down $0.925

Mar 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.675, down $0.850

Apr 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.500, down $0.975

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hogs futures erased the Wednesday-Thursday gain, with Friday closes $1.27 to $1.90 lower. Feb futures were 45 cents lower on the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was 27 cents higher on 01/22, at $61.27. In the latest CoT report with positions data from Tuesday, managed money hog traders were net long by 11,566 contracts. Over 3 weeks spec trader OI is up 10,464 contracts. …. Pork export sales from the week ending 01/16 were 30,334 MT, which was a 21.6% drop vs. last week, but 48.5% higher yr/yr. There are 490,309 MTs of unshipped pork on the books, which was lower wk/wk due to weekly shipments being a 10-week high for pork. Exports were listed at 44,417 MT, and of the week’s shipments 38.21% were headed to the PRC. China booked only 2,996 MT (9.88% of total) of new pork business for the week ending 01/16. USDA’s Afternoon Carcass Cutout was $1.46 lower. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was up another 59 cents to $52.73. USDA projected the weekly FI hog slaughter at 2.720 million head through Saturday. That was 120,000 head more than last week, and puts ytd slaughter at 9.313 million head.

Feb 20 Hogs closed at $67.225, down $1.275,

Apr 20 Hogs closed at $73.450, down $1.900

May 20 Hogs closed at $79.975, down $1.800

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures fell another 63 points on the last trade day of the week, which helped increase the weekly loss to 180 points. As of Tuesday, cotton spec traders were still, albeit less, net long. For the week ending 01/16 cotton bookings were up 32.12% with the USDA reporting 307,764 RBs of sales. The week’s sales were the highest since the week ending 11/7. In the same report, USDA listed exports at 282,590 RBs, a weekly reduction of 6.34% but an increase of 18.45% over the same week last year. MYTD cotton shipments are at 4.721m RBs, which is 16.57% more than last year at this time. The Cotlook A index completely regained the 180 points and is back up to 80.20 cents/lb for 01/23. The AWP for cotton is 61.29 cents/lb.

Mar 20 Cotton closed at 69.4, down 63 points,

May 20 Cotton closed at 70.2, down 55 points

Jul 20 Cotton closed at 71.12, down 47 points

Oct 20 Cotton closed at 70.39, up 60 points

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

Did you know Brugler Marketing & Management has more to offer to you than just this free daily commentary?! Producers just like you rely on our custom research and daily guidance on when and how to market their commodities. Click here to learn more about what we have to offer, or call 402-697-3623. Do it today!

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.