Commodity Comments: 

3/31/21

Definitely saw the Fireworks today!

First we should cover the old crop numbers.  I don't believe anyone was too surprised to see bullish news for old crop.  Corn stocks came in roughly 69 million below the average trade estimates at 7.7BBU.  A year to year comparison shows a 379 MBU reduction from last year.  Soybean stocks came in at 1.564BBU, which was actually 27 million above the average estimate.  Wheat stocks also came in higher than expected at 1.271BBU.  21/22 ending stocks for corn are likely to drop below a sub -9% socks to use ratio. 

Bean and corn acres both fell below Trade Estmaties.  87.6M for bean versus 90M and 91.14 on corn versus 93.  Wheat came above Trade Estimates at 46.4 M acres.   

I was expecting a bullish report for old crop and neautral on new crop.   The open winter and dryness today, makes me think that the acres WILL get planted, pending a really wet spring ahead.  I do agree that wheat acreage will be/should be a little higher than estimate because of the current weather situation and conditions.   I also expect the corn and bean acres to go in the ground and would not be surprised to see a bigger Acreage number for the June report.  Yet this factors in NO drought factor.  The up and coming weeks will definitely be looked at for Planting Progress and eventually the Drought card could be paid unless we get some rain.  Volatility will continue.        

The lock limit closes on corn and beans will push the expanded limits to 40 cents on corn and $1.05 on beans.  Corn synthetics were trading about 7 cents higher on old crop and new crop beans were about 17 cents higher.  It could be an interesting open to the Nite Session tonight.  

If you ever have any questions regarding the different types of contracts that JVG offers, please give us a call.  We have cash, futures fixed, Minimum Price, and Basis Fixed available.  Also, if you hear of different kinds of contracts that you may be interested, let us know.   

Have a good Easter weekend and Pray for some Rain! 

Tiffany Heier